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To restore investor confidence in economy, the new Romanian government will have to urgently reverse the expansionary fiscal policy and to elaborate a "credible" budget for the current year, aimed at fiscal consolidation, according to Economic and Financial Affairs (EcFin), a division of the EC.
The financial crisis and its impact on real economy, through its effects on foreign exchange market, business activity, financial system and investor confidence, significantly hinder the correction of budgetary imbalances, but also requires the most urgent addressing of the problems, the EcFin study shows.
Romania's strong economic growth, an average of 6.2% during the period 2002-2007, was supported by consumption and foreign lending, generating an increase in the current account deficit of 3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), to 14% of GDP during the same period.
The repatriation of profits by foreign direct investors and the interests paid on foreign loans, two of the main factors that generated the deepening of current account deficit, were balanced by current transfers, mainly European funds and money transferred to the country.
Financial intermediation had a key role in the distribution process of external capital flows to the Romanian consumers. Internal crediting to the private sector - excluding financial institutions - has increased during the period 2002-2008, from 11% of GDP to 39% of GDP, on the background of the competition between banks, most of them with foreign majority ownership, by early last year, financed by the international financial groups to which they belong.
However, the credit volume in Romania is moderate, in comparison with the average of the ten countries that joined the EU after 2004, 66% of GDP in 2007.
While external deficits have been fuelled by the private sector, public sector crediting generated an increase in the budget deficit, from 1.2% of GDP in 2005 to, probably, over 3% in 2008.
In this context, the Romanian economy shows vulnerabilities, especially in terms of financing the external deficit and the consumption and corporate budgets,  EcFin considers.
Romania's foreign debt rose from 30% of GDP in 2000 to 52% of GDP in August 2008, a still moderate level compared to levels in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, where external debt exceeded 100% of GDP in 2008.

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